AL East predictions

Well, it's finally here! The 2009 season is upon us! And what is a new baseball season without some potentially horribly offbase predictions by yours truly? I'm going to break up each division into separate posts, but I'm hoping to have all six ready by tomorrow.

For starters, let's look at the AL East!

1) Tampa Bay Rays 98-64
2) Boston Red Sox 95-67
3) New York Yankees 88-74
4) Baltimore Orioles 82-80
5) Toronto Blue Jays 68-94

Last year, you would be crazy to predict a Rays division championship, but this year its not so absurd. This is still a very questionable pick for me, due to the Red Sox having a strong roster and the Yankees obviously reshoring their team this offseason. Let's start the explanations from the back:

The Toronto Blue Jays have gotten by on good pitching for years, but I think this is the year that everything just falls apart for them. There is a decent chance that Halladay is moved at the deadline, leaving David Purcey and Jesse Litsch battling for the number one spot...not an ideal situation for Jays fans. Not to mention, the offense hinges on Vernon Wells and Alexis Rios rebounding, 21 year old Travis Snider channeling his inner Evan Longoria and stealing the show from the get go, and everyone else staying healthy. With Aaron Hill, Vernon Wells, and Scott Rolen as everyday starters, health is a major concern. The bullpen is still solid, but can only do so much if the starters outside of Doc don't pitch past the fifth.

Baltimore is still about two to three years away from the rebuilding process to really bear fruit, but I see them being somewhat competitive this year. I don't think they will challenge for the wild card, but their entire lineup is pretty good and Markakis is a beast. They are still fairly weak in the rotation, as the ace, Jeremy Guthrie, would be a number two or even three on most other teams. Koji Uehara could surprise some people; David Pauley might also give slightly below average performances at worst. The pen is solid from the seventh on as Jim Johnson, Chris Ray, and George Sherrill should do a pretty good job locking games up. Any injuries to this squad could be disastrous though.

I know I'm probably the only person predicting the Yankees to blow it again, but I am. If you are going to spend as much money as they did, you would think they could afford some backup options. As the injury to Alex Rodriguez has shown, this team lacks depth at just about every position. Nick Swisher is a solid backup for first base and outfield, but the Yanks have no one to fill in the infield in case of emergency. Not to mention, with an injury-prone starter like AJ Burnett, a guy who was completely overused down the stretch last year in CC Sabathia, a solid number three in Wang, and Andy Pettitte's fragile and steroid depleted arm, backup options would be nice. If any of their starters go down, they have to rely on Ian Kennedy, Phil Hughes, or Alfredo Aceves...in other words, the SAME guys who couldn't get the job done last year. I don't see A-Roid bouncing back that well, and with all but three hitters over the age of 32, this is not a team truly built for a 162 game season plus playoffs.

Choosing the winner for me came down to depth. The Red Sox did a good job of signing guys to help out in this area, but they signed guys that are more injury-prone than their starters. If Baldelli, Smoltz, and Penny fill in for other players and then go down with injuries themselves, the Sox could make it through, but I'm not sure they have the youth to really compete with the Rays lineup. The biggest question mark for the Sox is the rotation. Not talent, obviously, because they have loads, but durability. Beckett will most likely encounter another case of blisters or something, Daisuke's ERA could fall back down to Earth if he has to go more than his average of 5.7 innings, and Wakefield is...Wakefield. Jon Lester will emerge as the ace of this team and the pen will be strong, but I don't feel it will be enough.

The Rays front office has done an excellent job building a team. The only true weakness is in the outfield, but its not actually that bad. While Upton is out, Gabe Gross and Gabe Kapler can fake their way through CF if Justin Ruggiano is not ready. Matt Joyce is another vital tool they picked up from Detroit and his combination of speed and power make him an excellent fourth outfielder and potential starting right fielder for Tampa. Their rotation is rock solid. The Rays also have the depth to handle the loss of a starter or two as David Price and Wade Davis are ready to go. The addition of Jason Isringhausen to the bullpen isn't huge, but it does give the Rays yet another option for their committee pen. I can definitely see a repeat of last year.