Two Up, Two Down: First Base

Sorry for the humongous delay, although David didn't post jack either, so I don't feel that bad. Honestly, I've been assembling data to formulate my cheatsheet for the impending draft. I'm drafting my first team tomorrow, but I probably won't draft until early to mid march for my other leagues. Anyhow, here are my two up two down results for first base.

Two Up:

Adrian Gonzalez is normally a pretty good fantasy producer. He has a very good track record and is suitable as a starting first basemen in most leagues. For some reason, though, he is going about five rounds after Justin Morneau even though they are projected to have similar stats. AGon in the 10th round is a fairly good starting first basemen pick but amazing value as your utility player.

Adam LaRoche is going undrafted in most leagues due to his down year last year. That, of course was a down year in which he still hit 21 home runs and 88 RBIs. as long as Bay doesn't get traded, don't count LaRoche out as he will see pitches and mash his way to 30 homeruns this year.

Two Down:

In time, I think Prince Fielder will develop into an excellent and consistent player. However, his home run totals doubled his 2006 numbers, so he may hit closer to 30 or 40 at a max. Obviously that doesn't make him a bad option, but it does take him out of the second or third round, as better value can be found at those picks.

Expect another down year out of Derrek Lee. He is an inconsistent an injury prone hitter. Everyone is waiting for another 2005, but I think his ceiling right now is 30 homeruns. I don't see him having a full season this year.