MVP

Congratulation to the Phillies on winning the World Series. It was a very ugly victory that will probably be tainted by horrible officiating, Bud Selig's idiocy, and the outright retardedness of MLB's television deal with Fox. Kudos to Brad Lidge, though, on his perfect season.

Anyhow, what this post is going to deal with is the Most Valuable Player award. To determine the winner, I used a formula that allotted a certain amount of points for home runs, RBIs, batting average, on-base plus slugging percentage, walks, strikeouts, doubles, triples, stolen bases, intentional walks, position played, and games played. There are other categories, but I completely forget as I lost my program after printing out the results. I disregarded pitchers because I did not feel there were any pitchers that deserved to win the award, so I really did not care where they would place. Plus that would make the formula a lot harder to develop. Sue me, C.C.

In the National League, it was kind of a waste of time even computing the results. Anyone with half a brain knows who should win the award this year. According to my formula, Albert Pujols amassed almost four hundred more points than the second place finisher, David Wright. While he did not overwhelm with his home run and RBI totals, his overall production made this one of the best seasons of his career. He set career highs in walks, batting average, on-base percentage, OPS+, and intentional walks. In general, he was a monster this year and deserves the MVP.

1 Albert Pujols, STL
2 David Wright, NYM
3 Carlos Beltran, NYM
4 Lance Berkman, HOU
5 Chase Utley, PHI
6 Hanley Ramirez, FLA
7 Jose Reyes, NYM
8 Nate McLouth, PIT
9 Ryan Howard, PHI
10 Matt Holliday, COL
11 Aramis Ramirez, CHC
12 Ryan Ludwick, STL
13 Carlos Delgado, NYM
14 Adrian Gonzalez, SDP
15 Ryan Braun, MIL

The situation in the American League is a lot more muddied. There wasn't really one clear player who stepped up and outperformed the field. Similar to the National League, the teams that won divisions won because of teamwork and not really on the heels of a dominant player. According to my formula, Grady Sizemore is the statistical MVP, but I think there is no way he even breaks into the real life top five due to playing for a small market team that was a huge disappointment this year. It is hard to call between Dustin Pedroia, Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer, and Josh Hamilton, but I will go with my gut and say that Morneau wins his second MVP.

1 Grady Sizemore, CLE
2 Josh Hamilton, TX
3 Justin Morneau, MIN
4 Dustin Pedroia, BOS
5 Alex Rodriguez, NYY
6 Aubrey Huff, BAL
7 Carlos Quentin, CWS
8 Kevin Youkilis, BOS
9 Bobby Abreu, NYY
10 Nick Markakis, BAL
11 Miguel Cabrera, DET
12 Ian Kinsler, TX
13 Jermaine Dye, CWS
14 Raul Ibanez, SEA
15 Joe Mauer, MIN

Cy Young

I decided to make a post with my picks for the Cy Young. I didn't just want to throw darts, so using Excel, I compared all major league pitchers across eighteen statistical categories and created a formula to see who was the best pitcher overall this year. A lot of this is moot, considering the voters tend to vote for the guy with the most wins, but I think this year could be very different.

In the National League, the big story is do you vote for Brandon Webb, who has 22 wins against a 3.30 ERA and only 183 strikeouts, Tim Lincecum with his 2.62 ERA, 265 strikeouts, and 18 wins(on a bad team, no less), or Johan Santana who put up a 2.53 ERA, 16 wins, and 206 strikeouts. Well, after comparing every National League pitcher, my formula has named Tim Lincecum as the best pitcher. As far as traditional pitching stats, he was first in strikeouts, second in ERA, second in wins, but the most important stat is his defense-indepent ERA of 2.48, tops among starting pitchers. This means that if all the pitchers had the same eight guys playing on the field with them, Lincecum would produce the best results. Here are my top 18 vote getters, because I didn't feel like listing two more. Brad Lidge's season was absolutely incredible. For the record, I did not include C.C. due to a lack of service time, but if you combine his stats from both leagues, he was easily the most dominant pitcher this year.

1 Tim Lincecum, SF
2 Brandon Webb, AZ
3 Dan Haren, AZ
4 Johan Santana, NYM
5 Brad Lidge, PHI
6 Jose Valverde, HOU
7 Ricky Nolasco, FLA
8 Ryan Dempster, CHC
9 Edinson Volquez, CIN
10 Ted Lilly, CHC
11 Cole Hamels, PHI
12 Roy Oswalt, HOU
13 Chad Billingsley, LAD
14 Kerry Wood, CHC
15 Derek Lowe, LAD
16 Ben Sheets, MIL
17 Jamie Moyer, PHI
18 Aaron Cook, COL

The American League is a little less interesting than the National League. Whereas the National League has four or five guys that could legitimately take the crown without there being a huge debate, I think there only two worth pitchers in the AL: Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee. Personally, I would go with Cliff Lee, but another part of me feels that that would rob Doc of his second Cy. They both had incredible seasons, with Cliff leading in wins and ERA, but Doc had all those complete games, which easily strengthened the pen for games in which he didn't pitch. Francisco Rodriguez should definitely be in the conversation and actually finished third in my rankings, but it would be a crime for him to win over two more deserving pitchers. I only ranked 14 pitchers because the dropoff after Joe Nathan consists of guys like Shaun Marcum who were good bit won't receive any votes.

1 Cliff Lee, CLE
2 Roy Halladay, TOR
3 Francisco Rodriguez, LAA
4 Ervin Santana, LAA
5 A.J. Burnett, TOR
6 Mike Mussina, NYY
7 Mariano Rivera, NYY
8 Jonathan Papelbon, BOS
9 Jon Lester, BOS
10 Gavin Floyd, CWS
11 Daisuke Matsuzaka, BOS
12 Joakim Soria, KC
13 Joe Saunders, LAA
14 Joe Nathan, MIN

Rookie of the Year

Rookie of the Year is a category that is usually either very clear cut or carries controversy. In 2001, Albert Pujols and Ichiro Suzuki were obvious rookies of the year, but last year it was a dead heat between Troy Tulowitski and Ryan Braun in the National League. This year, it seems like things are very clear cut in both leagues, but I decided to run a crude formula allotting points to hitter and pitchers in terms of their ranking among other rookies in statistical categories. I then ranked the top 10 finishers. Obviously, this formula is open to interpretation because it values all statistics equally and it depends on my own judgment on the importance of a hitter versus a pitcher. I feel, though, that it produced pretty good support for my rookie choices.

In the American league, Evan Longoria is the favorite to win. He has some competition from Alexei Ramirez, but I think most people intend to vote for Longoria. I do not disagree with this choice, but it is interesting to note that Mike Aviles of the Royals and Denard Span of the Twins actually ranked higher than Longoria in my system. The difference maker is Longoria's strikeout rate and batting average. Alexei Ramirez finished in fourth among the offensive rookies. There were also some impressive rookie pitchers, but I don't think any of them will win the big award. My prediction is that Evan Longoria will win the award, but here is the ranking of rookies according to the Justin system

1 Mike Aviles, KC
2 Denard Span, MIN
3 Evan Longoria, TB
4 Alexei Ramirez, CWS
5 Armando Galarraga, DET
6 Jacoby Ellsbury, BOS
7 Nick Blackburn, MIN
8 Joba Chamberlain, NYY
9 Greg Smith, OAK
10 David Murphy, TX

Honorable Mention: Ben Francisco, TX, Jose Arredondo, LAA, Glen Perkins, MIN, Justin Masterson, BOS, Joey Devine, OAK, Brad Ziegler, OAK

I think the National League is where the controversial pick will occur this year. The favorite to win is Geovany Soto. I do not agree with this pick, however. I think he is easily one of the three best rookies this year, but I think his position as a catcher is giving him too much leverage in this category. My personal pick is Joey Votto of Cincinnati. Votto is better than Soto in every statistical category except for walks, in which he trails very closely. My prediction is still going to be Geovany Soto, but I do not feel the right man will win the award.

1 Joey Votto, CIN
2 Geovany Soto, CHC
3 Hiroki Kuroda, LAD
4 Jair Jurrjens, ATL
5 Jorge Campillo, ATL
6 Kosuke Fukodome, CHC
7 Blake DeWitt, LAD
8 Jay Bruce, CIN
9 John Lannan, WAS
10 Johnny Cueto, CIN

Honorable Mention: Cory Wade, LAD, Chris Volstad, FLA, Kyle McClellan, STL

Comeback Players, Gold Gloves, and Silver Sluggers

Kudos to Amy Preston for reminding me that I had not yet written a season-ending awards prediction post. Obviously, that means I will start that now.

For starters, Cliff Lee and Brad Lidge were named the AL and NL Comeback Players of the year, respectively. I completely agree with Cliff Lee, but I am skeptical of Brad Lidge as a pick. No one was even close to Lee as a pick for this award. Last year, he was sent down to the minors and not even named to the Indians playoff roster. This year, he posts career highs/lows in almost every single statistical category and is a front runner for the Cy Young; more on that later. Lidge, however, brought something to my attention in his interview after winning the award: was he really so bad that he earned the title? Obviously, no MLB players want to be in the position to win a comeback player, but I don't really feel Lidge was in that position. He had a down year last year, but it was one hiccup in his career line. I think Kerry Wood, Ryan Ludwick, Fernando Tatis, or Jim Edmonds would have been more deserving.

Moving on, Gold gloves are very hard to predict strictly because there aren't really any accurate defensive metrics, but mostly because voters usually go off name basis. That being said, I will say that my predictions are as follows:

American League	National League
C: Joe Mauer, MIN	C: Chris Snyder, AZ
1B: Kevin Youkilis, BOS	1B: Albert Pujols, STL
2B: Dustin Pedroia, BOS	2B: Chase Utley, PHI
3B: Adrian Beltre, SEA	3B: Troy Glaus, STL
SS: Orlando Cabrera, CWS	SS: Jimmy Rollins, PHI
OF: Grady Sizemore, CLE	OF: Carlos Beltran, NYM
OF: Torii Hunter, LAA	OF: Chris Young, AZ
OF: Nick Markakis, BAL	OF: Aaron Rowand, SF
P: Roy Halladay, TOR	P: Derek Lowe, LAD

Lastly, the Silver Slugger award is given each year to the best offensive player in each league. Usually, it is determined by home run totals, but sometimes can be determined by OPS. In other words, it's easy to predict, but not really.

American League	National League
C: Joe Mauer, MIN	C: Brian McCann, ATL
1B: Miguel Cabrera, DET	1B: Albert Pujols, STL
2B: Dustin Pedroia, BOS	2B: Chase Utley, PHI
3B: Alex Rodriguez, NYY	3B: David Wright, NYM
SS: Jhonny Peralta, CLE	SS: Hanley Ramirez, FLA
OF: Carlos Quentin, CWS	OF: Ryan Ludwick, STL
OF: Josh Hamilton, TX	OF: Ryan Braun, MIL
OF: Jermaine Dye, CWS	OF: Adam Dunn, CIN/AZ
DH: Aubrey Huff, BAL	P: Carlos Zambrano, CHC

Championship Series play starts tonight

The NLCS begins tonight with a pitching matchup of Derek Lowe against Cole Hamels. Lowe was solid in game 1 of the LDS, only giving up two runs off a two run shot by Mark DeRosa. Looking at his record against Philadelphia; he only faced the Phillies once this year, lasting six and a third and giving up three runs. Hamels pitched 14 innings against the Dodgers this year and only allowed two runs in two starts. These stats are actually somewhat important even though it is a small sample size because both starts happened after the Dodgers acquired Manny. I'm rooting for the Dodgers, but if the Phillies get their offense going, they will win tonight. The key for the Dodgers will be to get to the Phillies bullpen. The Phillies pen was the third least used bullpen during the regular season, so they may not react well to being leaned upon if the starters fail. Hamels, I think, is a lock for good starts, but Myers and Moyer will need to step up. Myers faces Billingsley in game 2, which could easily go the Dodgers way. Game 3 features Kuroda against Moyer. No other starters have been listed for the Dodgers, so it will either be Maddux or Kershaw against Blanton in game 4, and then Lowe against Hamels in game 5, if necessary.

My prediction: Dodgers in 5

The Tampa Bay story has been remarkable this year. Their best showing before this season was 70-91 in 2004 for their first non-last place finish. Every other year they have finished dead last in the east and either lost 100 or come really close. This year, however, they came very close to winning 100 and actually held off the Yankees and Red Sox for the AL East title. They got to the playoffs because of starting pitching--second best starter's ERA in the American League, an excellent bullpen--third best ERA, and the ability to correctly use both--Tampa starters accounted 66.78% of the total innings pitched, sixth in the majors. Their offense leaves a little to be desired, but they turned it up in the divisional series. Boston seems to overmatch the Rays, but Tampa leads the season series 10-8. Boston rolled over the Angels because LA couldn't score many of the runners that got on base, but the Sox won't be so lucky this time around. They had a 1.46 WHIP against the Angels, with only a 2.54 ERA; that comparison seems unsustainable. Game 1 features a matchup of Jamie Shields and Daisuke Matsuzaka. Daisuke has much more success against the Rays than Shields does against the Red Sox, but I think it won't matter. Game 2 features Kazmir against Beckett. Game 3 will give Garza against Lester. Wakefield gets his first start of the postseason in game 4 against Andy Sonnanstine. With all these really even matchups, I think the bullpens willbe the deciding factor in this series.

My prediction: Tampa Bay in 7

Defending the title

The big key in the Los Angeles/Boston matchup was pitching--sound familiar? The offenses were so evenly matched that it was a complete wash. Boston had a much better lineup on paper and Los Angeles simply didn't have the firepower to blowout the Red Sox, even with Teixeira. If they were to win, they were going to have to contain the Red Sox and pull out a few runs. They succeeded in part 1, part 2 was another story.

Jon Lester was a stud in this series and it started in game 1. Seven innings with no earned runs is exactly what you want from your starter. Boston has an excellent defensive staff, but they weren't really needed with Lester mowing down batters. I was pleased with Jason Bay's ability to deliver, especially under the pressure of his first postseason AND replacing a cornerstone of Boston's last two world championships. Lackey had an excellent showing also, just not as good as Lester's. Papelbon threw down the gauntlet by striking out the side in the ninth. K-Rod did not get a chance to answer back.

While game 1 featured an excellent pitching matchup with two solid performances from the starters, game 2 was a battle of who was worse. DiceK gave up three runs in only five innings of work, but Ervin Santana showed his inconsistency by allowing five over five and a third. Jason Bay delivered again, insuring a couple more jersey sales. The big moment for me was the showdown between Papelbon and KRod. Papelbon pitched two scoreless, added another K to his tally, and didn't allow a baserunner. KRod gave up a two run shot and let four men on. Advantage: Paps.

Game 3 started out the same as game 2: subpar starting pitching. However, this game turned into an excellent late-inning affair. Los Angeles showed the depth of their pen for the series by bringing in Jered Weaver, who probably could have thrown three or four more innings if necessary. KRod again looked fairly bad, giving up a hit and walking two. Papelbon added another two innings of scoreless work, tallied up another three strikeouts, and allowed his first two baserunners. Mike Napoli was excellent in this game, but showcased the big problem with LA's offense: they are too poor of a hitting team to play smallball, but lack the power to go for a shootout.

The big story of game 4 was shoddy management by Mike Scioscia. A squeeze play in the top of the ninth with one out?!? You have two chances to score ONE run with the speedy Reggie Willits and you decide to play aggressive? I was actually rooting for LA to win this series, but after that call I changed my mind. The game itself was excellent with another gem for Jon Lester and another excellent showing by John Lackey. I could watch Lackey-Lester matchups all day after this series.

My prediction: Los Angeles in 4, Actual results: Boston in 4
3-4

No hope for Chicago

The Tampa Bay Rays first playoff appearance was going to be a matchup of the league's second best pitching staff against a slightly better offensive squad in the Chicago White Sox. The White Sox were going to need to hold the Rays offense off while getting to the Rays pitching somehow, no easy task when the bullpen is just as good as the starting rotation. The White Sox were bringing the league's fourth best starting rotation, but owned the eighth best bullpen, meaning that the key for the Rays would be to get to the pen.

Game 1 was a case of a very poor choice for Chicago's starter. Vazquez had been terrible over his last three starts. However, Buehrle would be going on three day's rest and Danks and Floyd has to be used down the stretch to get the Sox into the playoffs. Evan Longoria was the star of the show, as he anchored an offense that tagged Vazquez for six runs by the end of the fifth inning. Jamie Shields was good-not-great for the Rays and the pen showed a little weakness with Wheeler giving up a run.

Aside from only scoring two runs, I think the White Sox troubles in game 2 had to do with overuse of Buehrle by Ozzie. He had pitched 7 decent enough innings, but got tagged in the eighth, putting the game out of reach. Scott Kazmir only allowed two runs, but left the game fairly early and allowed almost two baserunners per inning. Against a better offense, he probably would have been rocked.

John Danks was solid in game 3. If you take out his bad start against Cleveland in September, he had a 2.68 ERA in his last ten starts. Garza, on the otherhand, hadn't had a start this bad since the beginning of September. Garza was pretty much as bad as Kazmir, just over more innings. If the White Sox could have turned it on like this against Kazmir, they would have been up two games. The highpoint for the Rays, though, was that in three games, they had three different major offensive contributors: Longoria in game 1, Iwamura in game 2, and Upton in game 3. A balanced attack definitely leads to championships.

The Sox fell apart in game 4. They were facing the Rays weakest starter and simply could not touch him. Sonnanstine only allowed three hits in 5 and two thirds. The real killer for the Sox, though, was the terrible showing by Gavin Floyd. Ozzie took a gamble with the fact that Tampa was statistically weaker against righties, but Floyd simply did not deliver. BJ Upton stepped up again and showed that the trio of Longoria, Crawford, and Upton are a force.

Pitching was the key in this matchup. The offenses were fairly evenly matched, with Tampa outscoring the White Sox 21-13. Tampa simply scored earlier and let their pitching hold down leads effectively.

My prediction: Tampa in 3, Actual result: Tampa in 4
3-3

100 Years Even

Anyone that thought the Cubs were going to roll here or that viewed the Dodgers victory as an upset did not follow baseball this year. Over the entire season, the Cubs were the better team, but the team that the Dodgers have brought into October is not the same team they had from April to July. The acquisitions of Manny Ramirez and Casey Blake, to a lesser extent, have made this team very dangerous. Their pitching is also lights out as they led the league in ERA and opponents OBP, mainly attributed to their killer bullpen. The Cubs offense was great during the season, but got to face subpar pitching from Milwaukee, Houston, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and St. Louis predominantly throughout the season.

Game 1 really set the pace for me. If Chicago could pull out two victories at home, they could lock the series. The biggest problem, which should have been expected, was that Dempster completely broke down. His stats for this season as a started do not correlate with his career stats as a reliever at all. At some point, the other foot would have to drop. Unfortunately for the Cubs, it happened in the postseason. James Loney's grand slam in this game completely took the home field advantage away from the Cubs as the Chicago crowd was completely dead from then on.

Game 2 continued the storyline of dead pitching for the Cubs. Carlos Zambrano's two starts since his no-hitter had been awful and this game continued the trend. Big Z keeps providing more evidence that he shouldn't be spoken of with the elite pitchers. Manny and Casey Blake gave the Dodgers exactly what they traded for, knocking in three runs and scoring four themselves. As an avid Cardinals fan, smelling the beginning of the end for the Cubs here was sweet.

Game 3 featured the same shoddy starting pitching for the Cubs as the first two games. On paper, their rotation was solid, but if you actually were to look closer you would see converted (terrible) reliever, inconsistent hothead, injury-prone and losing velocity trade acquisition, and overrated Ted Lilly. The Cubs pitching just did not give them an opportunity to win.

The Dodgers won this series due to outscoring the Cubs 20-6. The offense never quit and the pitching could have won it with even less run support. Going forward, the Dodgers are a very dangerous team.

My prediction: Dodgers in 5, Actual: Dodgers in 3
2-2

Why the Phillies beat the Brewes

Well, the divisional series is over. I'm surprised neither Dave nor I posted our predictions, but just for the sake of information, I had predicted the Dodgers in 5, Phillies in 3(or 4 if Sabathia got rocked)*exact quote*, Tampa in 3, and Anaheim in 4. I'm going to try and break down each series and explain exactly why each team won. After that, I'll go ahead and put in my predictions for the championship series.

We will start off with the Phillies and Brewers. As soon as it was announced that Sheets was out, this series became a no-brainer. The Brewers starting pitching, outside of Sabathia, is abysmal. Before the acquisition of Sabathia, the Brewers ranked 7th in the NL in ERA and eighth in opponent's on-base percentage. The addition of Sabathia(and the fact that he pitched so many times in the second half) shot them up to first and fourth in those categories respectively. This obviously shows that outside of Sabathia, the Brewers are an incredibly hittable team. It certainly didn't help that in six regular season games, the Brewers lost five and gave up an average of more than five runs per game.

Using Gallardo as the starter for game 1 was not only an unnecessary risk, but one with an incredibly tipped hand. He had just returned from knee surgery and even the TBS announcers knew right away he would be on a strict 85 pitch count. Due to this, the Phillies showed more patience and had Gallardo knocked out by the fourth inning. The Brewers pen did not allow any additional runs, but the three that Gallardo allowed were all the Phillies needed to win the game.

In game 2, the inevitable happened. You simply can't pitch someone as much as the Brewers had been pitching Sabathia and expect him to come through every game. Sabathia was gassed and the Phillies attacked. These first two games really were the beginning of the end for the Crew, not only becuase they were down two games to none, but because their pen had been forced to throw eight and a third innings in the first two games.

Dave Bush had excellent stats for his home starts, so using him in game 3 was a good call. I think Sveum pulled him a bit early, however. He had only thrown 70 pitches and the bullpen then had to tack another three and third innings.

Game 4 was all about Jeff Suppan being terrible. Five runs in three innings is not what you expect out of a highly paid starter, especially in the playoffs. As much text as I just devoted to talking about the overuse of the pen in the last three games, Sveum would have been better off letting each reliever pitch two or three. The Brewers pen was actually unscored upon in the series aside from Mota in this game. Even if Suppan had pitched like a major leaguer, I think the overuse would have caught up with the Crew in game 5.

So, in four games, the Phillies outscored the Brewers 15-9, which isn't a blowout by any means but it is important to not that the Phillies pitching is what won them this series. Outside of Hamels, the Phillies look pretty weak, so this series can be viewed as a boost to their starting four. Their offense is ridiculous on paper, but the 15 runs is actually a pretty small number and may not be able to cut it against a better pitching team.

My prediction: Phillies in 3(or 4), Actual results: Phillies in 4