Rookie of the Year

Rookie of the Year is a category that is usually either very clear cut or carries controversy. In 2001, Albert Pujols and Ichiro Suzuki were obvious rookies of the year, but last year it was a dead heat between Troy Tulowitski and Ryan Braun in the National League. This year, it seems like things are very clear cut in both leagues, but I decided to run a crude formula allotting points to hitter and pitchers in terms of their ranking among other rookies in statistical categories. I then ranked the top 10 finishers. Obviously, this formula is open to interpretation because it values all statistics equally and it depends on my own judgment on the importance of a hitter versus a pitcher. I feel, though, that it produced pretty good support for my rookie choices.

In the American league, Evan Longoria is the favorite to win. He has some competition from Alexei Ramirez, but I think most people intend to vote for Longoria. I do not disagree with this choice, but it is interesting to note that Mike Aviles of the Royals and Denard Span of the Twins actually ranked higher than Longoria in my system. The difference maker is Longoria's strikeout rate and batting average. Alexei Ramirez finished in fourth among the offensive rookies. There were also some impressive rookie pitchers, but I don't think any of them will win the big award. My prediction is that Evan Longoria will win the award, but here is the ranking of rookies according to the Justin system

1 Mike Aviles, KC
2 Denard Span, MIN
3 Evan Longoria, TB
4 Alexei Ramirez, CWS
5 Armando Galarraga, DET
6 Jacoby Ellsbury, BOS
7 Nick Blackburn, MIN
8 Joba Chamberlain, NYY
9 Greg Smith, OAK
10 David Murphy, TX

Honorable Mention: Ben Francisco, TX, Jose Arredondo, LAA, Glen Perkins, MIN, Justin Masterson, BOS, Joey Devine, OAK, Brad Ziegler, OAK

I think the National League is where the controversial pick will occur this year. The favorite to win is Geovany Soto. I do not agree with this pick, however. I think he is easily one of the three best rookies this year, but I think his position as a catcher is giving him too much leverage in this category. My personal pick is Joey Votto of Cincinnati. Votto is better than Soto in every statistical category except for walks, in which he trails very closely. My prediction is still going to be Geovany Soto, but I do not feel the right man will win the award.

1 Joey Votto, CIN
2 Geovany Soto, CHC
3 Hiroki Kuroda, LAD
4 Jair Jurrjens, ATL
5 Jorge Campillo, ATL
6 Kosuke Fukodome, CHC
7 Blake DeWitt, LAD
8 Jay Bruce, CIN
9 John Lannan, WAS
10 Johnny Cueto, CIN

Honorable Mention: Cory Wade, LAD, Chris Volstad, FLA, Kyle McClellan, STL