Cy Young

I decided to make a post with my picks for the Cy Young. I didn't just want to throw darts, so using Excel, I compared all major league pitchers across eighteen statistical categories and created a formula to see who was the best pitcher overall this year. A lot of this is moot, considering the voters tend to vote for the guy with the most wins, but I think this year could be very different.

In the National League, the big story is do you vote for Brandon Webb, who has 22 wins against a 3.30 ERA and only 183 strikeouts, Tim Lincecum with his 2.62 ERA, 265 strikeouts, and 18 wins(on a bad team, no less), or Johan Santana who put up a 2.53 ERA, 16 wins, and 206 strikeouts. Well, after comparing every National League pitcher, my formula has named Tim Lincecum as the best pitcher. As far as traditional pitching stats, he was first in strikeouts, second in ERA, second in wins, but the most important stat is his defense-indepent ERA of 2.48, tops among starting pitchers. This means that if all the pitchers had the same eight guys playing on the field with them, Lincecum would produce the best results. Here are my top 18 vote getters, because I didn't feel like listing two more. Brad Lidge's season was absolutely incredible. For the record, I did not include C.C. due to a lack of service time, but if you combine his stats from both leagues, he was easily the most dominant pitcher this year.

1 Tim Lincecum, SF
2 Brandon Webb, AZ
3 Dan Haren, AZ
4 Johan Santana, NYM
5 Brad Lidge, PHI
6 Jose Valverde, HOU
7 Ricky Nolasco, FLA
8 Ryan Dempster, CHC
9 Edinson Volquez, CIN
10 Ted Lilly, CHC
11 Cole Hamels, PHI
12 Roy Oswalt, HOU
13 Chad Billingsley, LAD
14 Kerry Wood, CHC
15 Derek Lowe, LAD
16 Ben Sheets, MIL
17 Jamie Moyer, PHI
18 Aaron Cook, COL

The American League is a little less interesting than the National League. Whereas the National League has four or five guys that could legitimately take the crown without there being a huge debate, I think there only two worth pitchers in the AL: Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee. Personally, I would go with Cliff Lee, but another part of me feels that that would rob Doc of his second Cy. They both had incredible seasons, with Cliff leading in wins and ERA, but Doc had all those complete games, which easily strengthened the pen for games in which he didn't pitch. Francisco Rodriguez should definitely be in the conversation and actually finished third in my rankings, but it would be a crime for him to win over two more deserving pitchers. I only ranked 14 pitchers because the dropoff after Joe Nathan consists of guys like Shaun Marcum who were good bit won't receive any votes.

1 Cliff Lee, CLE
2 Roy Halladay, TOR
3 Francisco Rodriguez, LAA
4 Ervin Santana, LAA
5 A.J. Burnett, TOR
6 Mike Mussina, NYY
7 Mariano Rivera, NYY
8 Jonathan Papelbon, BOS
9 Jon Lester, BOS
10 Gavin Floyd, CWS
11 Daisuke Matsuzaka, BOS
12 Joakim Soria, KC
13 Joe Saunders, LAA
14 Joe Nathan, MIN