ROTY Commentary

Congratulations go out to Evan Longoria and Geovany Soto for picking up Rookie of the Year honors. Both were fairly easy to call, but there was still a lot to discuss in the voting.

I fully expected Longoria to win, but I did not expect it to be unanimous. I figured Alexei Ramirez would garner a handful of first place votes, especially from Chicago writers. I mean Fukodome got a second place vote on a national league ballot, but a guy who actually performed well this year can't get a first? Ridiculous. I'm glad to see Mike Aviles got some love, but Jacoby Ellsbury's were a bit overvalued, I think. Aviles was better statistically in every other category. Joey Devine and Brad Ziegler got some attention, too, although Devine got one second place vote and Ziegler got a third, so that may have been a California writer's ballot. Just speculation.

My Standings	Voting Results
1 Mike Aviles	1 Evan Longoria (28 1st->140 pts)
2 Denard Span	2 Alexei Ramirez (18 2nd 5 3rd->59 pts
3 Evan Longoria	3 Jacoby Ellsbury (7 2nd 5 3rd->26 pts)
4 Alexei Ramirez	4 Mike Aviles (2 2nd 3 3rd->9 pts)
5 Armando Gallaraga	5 Armando Gallaraga (9 3rd->9 pts)
6 Jacoby Ellsbury	6 Joey Devine (1 2nd->3 pts)
7 Nick Blackburn	7 Denard Span (3 3rd->3 pts)
8 Joba Chamberlain	8 Nick Blackburn, Joba Chamberlain, Brad Ziegler (1 3rd->1 pt)
9 Greg Smith
10 David Murphy

The National League is where the voters really embarrassed themselves. Geovany Soto was a good pick. I personally preferred Joey Votto, but to excel at a position as tough as catcher in your rookie year deserves recognition. The embarrassment falls on the 4th place vote-getter. Edinson Volquez picked up three second place votes despite not being a rookie. I don't really know what is more embarrassing, the fact that three "esteemed" baseball writers don't know the rookie qualifications, or that fact that they didn't give him first place votes considering he is also a dark horse candidate for the Cy Young! The fact that Kosuke Fukodome picked up two votes, one of which was a second place, yet Hiroki Kuroda garnered none is also laughable considering Fukodome was an embarrassment outside of his four hit game, while Kuroda put up a sub4 ERA!

My Standings	Voting Results
1 Joey Votto	1 Geovany Soto (31 1st 1 2nd->158 pts)
2 Geovany Soto	2 Joey Votto (1 1st 21 2nd 8 3rd->76 pts
3 Hiroki Kuroda	3 Jair Jurrjens (6 2nd 16 3rd->34 pts)
4 Jair Jurrjens	4 Edinson Volquez :( (3 2nd->9 pts)
5 Jorge Campillo	5 Jay Bruce (7 3rd->7 pts)
6 Kosuke Fukodome	6 Kosuke Fukodome (1 2nd 1 3rd->4 pts)
7 Blake DeWitt
8 Jay Bruce
9 John Lannan
10 Johnny Cueto

Trading for Holliday?

So the rumor mill is going crazy with a potential trade for the Rockies' Matt Holliday. The latest deal I have heard is Ludwick, Schumaker, and Boggs for Matt Holliday. Right away I will say that I think acquiring Holliday is awesome and I am on board as long as the deal is right, but in this case the deal is not right. I am very much against this trade. The Cardinals have holes in the middle infield, starting pitching, and left-handed relief pitching. We have about 20-30 million to cover these holes which shouldn't be that big of a problem, honestly. Trading for Holliday, however, requires us to release Ludwick, Schumaker, and Boggs' combined salaries(411,000+arbitration for Ludwick, 400,000 for Schumaker, and a minor league deal for Boggs) for one year of Matt Holliday at 13.5 million dollars. Looking at our budget as an optimistic 30 million dollars, that still eats more than a third of our budget for a position that was already covered. Not to mention, to make the trade worthwhile we will have to sign Holliday to an extenstion. This is already impossible due to Holliday being represented by Boras, notorious for frowning upon extensions. Even if we do somehow sign Holliday to an extension, it would probably be comparable, if not higher than Carlos Lee's 6 year 100 million dollar contract signed in 2007. This would require paying Holliday more than Pujols and could also cut into our ability to resign Pujols when his contract expires. Basically, the only positive to this deal is adding a hitter with a solid reputation to hit behind Pujols and clearing up a roster spot for Colby Rasmus, but at the same time you add payroll in an area that you aren't upgrading that much. While this year could have been a fluke for Ludwick, Holliday's home/away splits are hard to ignore. I think we could conceivably extend Ludwick and take a chance that he has put it all together than overpay for Holliday to give us an .803 on-base percentage(his career average away from Coors) instead of the 1.068 that he puts up in Colorado.

As far as my personal ideas for this off-season, I would suggest trading Kennedy for anything at all, moving Ankiel or Ludwick for relief help (like Kevin Gregg, Huston Street, or likewise), signing two of Felipe Lopez, Marcus Giles, or Nick Punto to play second base and shortstop, and utilizing our minor league system to fill bench spots or leftover bullpen slots.

MVP

Congratulation to the Phillies on winning the World Series. It was a very ugly victory that will probably be tainted by horrible officiating, Bud Selig's idiocy, and the outright retardedness of MLB's television deal with Fox. Kudos to Brad Lidge, though, on his perfect season.

Anyhow, what this post is going to deal with is the Most Valuable Player award. To determine the winner, I used a formula that allotted a certain amount of points for home runs, RBIs, batting average, on-base plus slugging percentage, walks, strikeouts, doubles, triples, stolen bases, intentional walks, position played, and games played. There are other categories, but I completely forget as I lost my program after printing out the results. I disregarded pitchers because I did not feel there were any pitchers that deserved to win the award, so I really did not care where they would place. Plus that would make the formula a lot harder to develop. Sue me, C.C.

In the National League, it was kind of a waste of time even computing the results. Anyone with half a brain knows who should win the award this year. According to my formula, Albert Pujols amassed almost four hundred more points than the second place finisher, David Wright. While he did not overwhelm with his home run and RBI totals, his overall production made this one of the best seasons of his career. He set career highs in walks, batting average, on-base percentage, OPS+, and intentional walks. In general, he was a monster this year and deserves the MVP.

1 Albert Pujols, STL
2 David Wright, NYM
3 Carlos Beltran, NYM
4 Lance Berkman, HOU
5 Chase Utley, PHI
6 Hanley Ramirez, FLA
7 Jose Reyes, NYM
8 Nate McLouth, PIT
9 Ryan Howard, PHI
10 Matt Holliday, COL
11 Aramis Ramirez, CHC
12 Ryan Ludwick, STL
13 Carlos Delgado, NYM
14 Adrian Gonzalez, SDP
15 Ryan Braun, MIL

The situation in the American League is a lot more muddied. There wasn't really one clear player who stepped up and outperformed the field. Similar to the National League, the teams that won divisions won because of teamwork and not really on the heels of a dominant player. According to my formula, Grady Sizemore is the statistical MVP, but I think there is no way he even breaks into the real life top five due to playing for a small market team that was a huge disappointment this year. It is hard to call between Dustin Pedroia, Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer, and Josh Hamilton, but I will go with my gut and say that Morneau wins his second MVP.

1 Grady Sizemore, CLE
2 Josh Hamilton, TX
3 Justin Morneau, MIN
4 Dustin Pedroia, BOS
5 Alex Rodriguez, NYY
6 Aubrey Huff, BAL
7 Carlos Quentin, CWS
8 Kevin Youkilis, BOS
9 Bobby Abreu, NYY
10 Nick Markakis, BAL
11 Miguel Cabrera, DET
12 Ian Kinsler, TX
13 Jermaine Dye, CWS
14 Raul Ibanez, SEA
15 Joe Mauer, MIN

Cy Young

I decided to make a post with my picks for the Cy Young. I didn't just want to throw darts, so using Excel, I compared all major league pitchers across eighteen statistical categories and created a formula to see who was the best pitcher overall this year. A lot of this is moot, considering the voters tend to vote for the guy with the most wins, but I think this year could be very different.

In the National League, the big story is do you vote for Brandon Webb, who has 22 wins against a 3.30 ERA and only 183 strikeouts, Tim Lincecum with his 2.62 ERA, 265 strikeouts, and 18 wins(on a bad team, no less), or Johan Santana who put up a 2.53 ERA, 16 wins, and 206 strikeouts. Well, after comparing every National League pitcher, my formula has named Tim Lincecum as the best pitcher. As far as traditional pitching stats, he was first in strikeouts, second in ERA, second in wins, but the most important stat is his defense-indepent ERA of 2.48, tops among starting pitchers. This means that if all the pitchers had the same eight guys playing on the field with them, Lincecum would produce the best results. Here are my top 18 vote getters, because I didn't feel like listing two more. Brad Lidge's season was absolutely incredible. For the record, I did not include C.C. due to a lack of service time, but if you combine his stats from both leagues, he was easily the most dominant pitcher this year.

1 Tim Lincecum, SF
2 Brandon Webb, AZ
3 Dan Haren, AZ
4 Johan Santana, NYM
5 Brad Lidge, PHI
6 Jose Valverde, HOU
7 Ricky Nolasco, FLA
8 Ryan Dempster, CHC
9 Edinson Volquez, CIN
10 Ted Lilly, CHC
11 Cole Hamels, PHI
12 Roy Oswalt, HOU
13 Chad Billingsley, LAD
14 Kerry Wood, CHC
15 Derek Lowe, LAD
16 Ben Sheets, MIL
17 Jamie Moyer, PHI
18 Aaron Cook, COL

The American League is a little less interesting than the National League. Whereas the National League has four or five guys that could legitimately take the crown without there being a huge debate, I think there only two worth pitchers in the AL: Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee. Personally, I would go with Cliff Lee, but another part of me feels that that would rob Doc of his second Cy. They both had incredible seasons, with Cliff leading in wins and ERA, but Doc had all those complete games, which easily strengthened the pen for games in which he didn't pitch. Francisco Rodriguez should definitely be in the conversation and actually finished third in my rankings, but it would be a crime for him to win over two more deserving pitchers. I only ranked 14 pitchers because the dropoff after Joe Nathan consists of guys like Shaun Marcum who were good bit won't receive any votes.

1 Cliff Lee, CLE
2 Roy Halladay, TOR
3 Francisco Rodriguez, LAA
4 Ervin Santana, LAA
5 A.J. Burnett, TOR
6 Mike Mussina, NYY
7 Mariano Rivera, NYY
8 Jonathan Papelbon, BOS
9 Jon Lester, BOS
10 Gavin Floyd, CWS
11 Daisuke Matsuzaka, BOS
12 Joakim Soria, KC
13 Joe Saunders, LAA
14 Joe Nathan, MIN

Rookie of the Year

Rookie of the Year is a category that is usually either very clear cut or carries controversy. In 2001, Albert Pujols and Ichiro Suzuki were obvious rookies of the year, but last year it was a dead heat between Troy Tulowitski and Ryan Braun in the National League. This year, it seems like things are very clear cut in both leagues, but I decided to run a crude formula allotting points to hitter and pitchers in terms of their ranking among other rookies in statistical categories. I then ranked the top 10 finishers. Obviously, this formula is open to interpretation because it values all statistics equally and it depends on my own judgment on the importance of a hitter versus a pitcher. I feel, though, that it produced pretty good support for my rookie choices.

In the American league, Evan Longoria is the favorite to win. He has some competition from Alexei Ramirez, but I think most people intend to vote for Longoria. I do not disagree with this choice, but it is interesting to note that Mike Aviles of the Royals and Denard Span of the Twins actually ranked higher than Longoria in my system. The difference maker is Longoria's strikeout rate and batting average. Alexei Ramirez finished in fourth among the offensive rookies. There were also some impressive rookie pitchers, but I don't think any of them will win the big award. My prediction is that Evan Longoria will win the award, but here is the ranking of rookies according to the Justin system

1 Mike Aviles, KC
2 Denard Span, MIN
3 Evan Longoria, TB
4 Alexei Ramirez, CWS
5 Armando Galarraga, DET
6 Jacoby Ellsbury, BOS
7 Nick Blackburn, MIN
8 Joba Chamberlain, NYY
9 Greg Smith, OAK
10 David Murphy, TX

Honorable Mention: Ben Francisco, TX, Jose Arredondo, LAA, Glen Perkins, MIN, Justin Masterson, BOS, Joey Devine, OAK, Brad Ziegler, OAK

I think the National League is where the controversial pick will occur this year. The favorite to win is Geovany Soto. I do not agree with this pick, however. I think he is easily one of the three best rookies this year, but I think his position as a catcher is giving him too much leverage in this category. My personal pick is Joey Votto of Cincinnati. Votto is better than Soto in every statistical category except for walks, in which he trails very closely. My prediction is still going to be Geovany Soto, but I do not feel the right man will win the award.

1 Joey Votto, CIN
2 Geovany Soto, CHC
3 Hiroki Kuroda, LAD
4 Jair Jurrjens, ATL
5 Jorge Campillo, ATL
6 Kosuke Fukodome, CHC
7 Blake DeWitt, LAD
8 Jay Bruce, CIN
9 John Lannan, WAS
10 Johnny Cueto, CIN

Honorable Mention: Cory Wade, LAD, Chris Volstad, FLA, Kyle McClellan, STL

Comeback Players, Gold Gloves, and Silver Sluggers

Kudos to Amy Preston for reminding me that I had not yet written a season-ending awards prediction post. Obviously, that means I will start that now.

For starters, Cliff Lee and Brad Lidge were named the AL and NL Comeback Players of the year, respectively. I completely agree with Cliff Lee, but I am skeptical of Brad Lidge as a pick. No one was even close to Lee as a pick for this award. Last year, he was sent down to the minors and not even named to the Indians playoff roster. This year, he posts career highs/lows in almost every single statistical category and is a front runner for the Cy Young; more on that later. Lidge, however, brought something to my attention in his interview after winning the award: was he really so bad that he earned the title? Obviously, no MLB players want to be in the position to win a comeback player, but I don't really feel Lidge was in that position. He had a down year last year, but it was one hiccup in his career line. I think Kerry Wood, Ryan Ludwick, Fernando Tatis, or Jim Edmonds would have been more deserving.

Moving on, Gold gloves are very hard to predict strictly because there aren't really any accurate defensive metrics, but mostly because voters usually go off name basis. That being said, I will say that my predictions are as follows:

American League	National League
C: Joe Mauer, MIN	C: Chris Snyder, AZ
1B: Kevin Youkilis, BOS	1B: Albert Pujols, STL
2B: Dustin Pedroia, BOS	2B: Chase Utley, PHI
3B: Adrian Beltre, SEA	3B: Troy Glaus, STL
SS: Orlando Cabrera, CWS	SS: Jimmy Rollins, PHI
OF: Grady Sizemore, CLE	OF: Carlos Beltran, NYM
OF: Torii Hunter, LAA	OF: Chris Young, AZ
OF: Nick Markakis, BAL	OF: Aaron Rowand, SF
P: Roy Halladay, TOR	P: Derek Lowe, LAD

Lastly, the Silver Slugger award is given each year to the best offensive player in each league. Usually, it is determined by home run totals, but sometimes can be determined by OPS. In other words, it's easy to predict, but not really.

American League	National League
C: Joe Mauer, MIN	C: Brian McCann, ATL
1B: Miguel Cabrera, DET	1B: Albert Pujols, STL
2B: Dustin Pedroia, BOS	2B: Chase Utley, PHI
3B: Alex Rodriguez, NYY	3B: David Wright, NYM
SS: Jhonny Peralta, CLE	SS: Hanley Ramirez, FLA
OF: Carlos Quentin, CWS	OF: Ryan Ludwick, STL
OF: Josh Hamilton, TX	OF: Ryan Braun, MIL
OF: Jermaine Dye, CWS	OF: Adam Dunn, CIN/AZ
DH: Aubrey Huff, BAL	P: Carlos Zambrano, CHC

Championship Series play starts tonight

The NLCS begins tonight with a pitching matchup of Derek Lowe against Cole Hamels. Lowe was solid in game 1 of the LDS, only giving up two runs off a two run shot by Mark DeRosa. Looking at his record against Philadelphia; he only faced the Phillies once this year, lasting six and a third and giving up three runs. Hamels pitched 14 innings against the Dodgers this year and only allowed two runs in two starts. These stats are actually somewhat important even though it is a small sample size because both starts happened after the Dodgers acquired Manny. I'm rooting for the Dodgers, but if the Phillies get their offense going, they will win tonight. The key for the Dodgers will be to get to the Phillies bullpen. The Phillies pen was the third least used bullpen during the regular season, so they may not react well to being leaned upon if the starters fail. Hamels, I think, is a lock for good starts, but Myers and Moyer will need to step up. Myers faces Billingsley in game 2, which could easily go the Dodgers way. Game 3 features Kuroda against Moyer. No other starters have been listed for the Dodgers, so it will either be Maddux or Kershaw against Blanton in game 4, and then Lowe against Hamels in game 5, if necessary.

My prediction: Dodgers in 5

The Tampa Bay story has been remarkable this year. Their best showing before this season was 70-91 in 2004 for their first non-last place finish. Every other year they have finished dead last in the east and either lost 100 or come really close. This year, however, they came very close to winning 100 and actually held off the Yankees and Red Sox for the AL East title. They got to the playoffs because of starting pitching--second best starter's ERA in the American League, an excellent bullpen--third best ERA, and the ability to correctly use both--Tampa starters accounted 66.78% of the total innings pitched, sixth in the majors. Their offense leaves a little to be desired, but they turned it up in the divisional series. Boston seems to overmatch the Rays, but Tampa leads the season series 10-8. Boston rolled over the Angels because LA couldn't score many of the runners that got on base, but the Sox won't be so lucky this time around. They had a 1.46 WHIP against the Angels, with only a 2.54 ERA; that comparison seems unsustainable. Game 1 features a matchup of Jamie Shields and Daisuke Matsuzaka. Daisuke has much more success against the Rays than Shields does against the Red Sox, but I think it won't matter. Game 2 features Kazmir against Beckett. Game 3 will give Garza against Lester. Wakefield gets his first start of the postseason in game 4 against Andy Sonnanstine. With all these really even matchups, I think the bullpens willbe the deciding factor in this series.

My prediction: Tampa Bay in 7

Defending the title

The big key in the Los Angeles/Boston matchup was pitching--sound familiar? The offenses were so evenly matched that it was a complete wash. Boston had a much better lineup on paper and Los Angeles simply didn't have the firepower to blowout the Red Sox, even with Teixeira. If they were to win, they were going to have to contain the Red Sox and pull out a few runs. They succeeded in part 1, part 2 was another story.

Jon Lester was a stud in this series and it started in game 1. Seven innings with no earned runs is exactly what you want from your starter. Boston has an excellent defensive staff, but they weren't really needed with Lester mowing down batters. I was pleased with Jason Bay's ability to deliver, especially under the pressure of his first postseason AND replacing a cornerstone of Boston's last two world championships. Lackey had an excellent showing also, just not as good as Lester's. Papelbon threw down the gauntlet by striking out the side in the ninth. K-Rod did not get a chance to answer back.

While game 1 featured an excellent pitching matchup with two solid performances from the starters, game 2 was a battle of who was worse. DiceK gave up three runs in only five innings of work, but Ervin Santana showed his inconsistency by allowing five over five and a third. Jason Bay delivered again, insuring a couple more jersey sales. The big moment for me was the showdown between Papelbon and KRod. Papelbon pitched two scoreless, added another K to his tally, and didn't allow a baserunner. KRod gave up a two run shot and let four men on. Advantage: Paps.

Game 3 started out the same as game 2: subpar starting pitching. However, this game turned into an excellent late-inning affair. Los Angeles showed the depth of their pen for the series by bringing in Jered Weaver, who probably could have thrown three or four more innings if necessary. KRod again looked fairly bad, giving up a hit and walking two. Papelbon added another two innings of scoreless work, tallied up another three strikeouts, and allowed his first two baserunners. Mike Napoli was excellent in this game, but showcased the big problem with LA's offense: they are too poor of a hitting team to play smallball, but lack the power to go for a shootout.

The big story of game 4 was shoddy management by Mike Scioscia. A squeeze play in the top of the ninth with one out?!? You have two chances to score ONE run with the speedy Reggie Willits and you decide to play aggressive? I was actually rooting for LA to win this series, but after that call I changed my mind. The game itself was excellent with another gem for Jon Lester and another excellent showing by John Lackey. I could watch Lackey-Lester matchups all day after this series.

My prediction: Los Angeles in 4, Actual results: Boston in 4
3-4

No hope for Chicago

The Tampa Bay Rays first playoff appearance was going to be a matchup of the league's second best pitching staff against a slightly better offensive squad in the Chicago White Sox. The White Sox were going to need to hold the Rays offense off while getting to the Rays pitching somehow, no easy task when the bullpen is just as good as the starting rotation. The White Sox were bringing the league's fourth best starting rotation, but owned the eighth best bullpen, meaning that the key for the Rays would be to get to the pen.

Game 1 was a case of a very poor choice for Chicago's starter. Vazquez had been terrible over his last three starts. However, Buehrle would be going on three day's rest and Danks and Floyd has to be used down the stretch to get the Sox into the playoffs. Evan Longoria was the star of the show, as he anchored an offense that tagged Vazquez for six runs by the end of the fifth inning. Jamie Shields was good-not-great for the Rays and the pen showed a little weakness with Wheeler giving up a run.

Aside from only scoring two runs, I think the White Sox troubles in game 2 had to do with overuse of Buehrle by Ozzie. He had pitched 7 decent enough innings, but got tagged in the eighth, putting the game out of reach. Scott Kazmir only allowed two runs, but left the game fairly early and allowed almost two baserunners per inning. Against a better offense, he probably would have been rocked.

John Danks was solid in game 3. If you take out his bad start against Cleveland in September, he had a 2.68 ERA in his last ten starts. Garza, on the otherhand, hadn't had a start this bad since the beginning of September. Garza was pretty much as bad as Kazmir, just over more innings. If the White Sox could have turned it on like this against Kazmir, they would have been up two games. The highpoint for the Rays, though, was that in three games, they had three different major offensive contributors: Longoria in game 1, Iwamura in game 2, and Upton in game 3. A balanced attack definitely leads to championships.

The Sox fell apart in game 4. They were facing the Rays weakest starter and simply could not touch him. Sonnanstine only allowed three hits in 5 and two thirds. The real killer for the Sox, though, was the terrible showing by Gavin Floyd. Ozzie took a gamble with the fact that Tampa was statistically weaker against righties, but Floyd simply did not deliver. BJ Upton stepped up again and showed that the trio of Longoria, Crawford, and Upton are a force.

Pitching was the key in this matchup. The offenses were fairly evenly matched, with Tampa outscoring the White Sox 21-13. Tampa simply scored earlier and let their pitching hold down leads effectively.

My prediction: Tampa in 3, Actual result: Tampa in 4
3-3

100 Years Even

Anyone that thought the Cubs were going to roll here or that viewed the Dodgers victory as an upset did not follow baseball this year. Over the entire season, the Cubs were the better team, but the team that the Dodgers have brought into October is not the same team they had from April to July. The acquisitions of Manny Ramirez and Casey Blake, to a lesser extent, have made this team very dangerous. Their pitching is also lights out as they led the league in ERA and opponents OBP, mainly attributed to their killer bullpen. The Cubs offense was great during the season, but got to face subpar pitching from Milwaukee, Houston, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and St. Louis predominantly throughout the season.

Game 1 really set the pace for me. If Chicago could pull out two victories at home, they could lock the series. The biggest problem, which should have been expected, was that Dempster completely broke down. His stats for this season as a started do not correlate with his career stats as a reliever at all. At some point, the other foot would have to drop. Unfortunately for the Cubs, it happened in the postseason. James Loney's grand slam in this game completely took the home field advantage away from the Cubs as the Chicago crowd was completely dead from then on.

Game 2 continued the storyline of dead pitching for the Cubs. Carlos Zambrano's two starts since his no-hitter had been awful and this game continued the trend. Big Z keeps providing more evidence that he shouldn't be spoken of with the elite pitchers. Manny and Casey Blake gave the Dodgers exactly what they traded for, knocking in three runs and scoring four themselves. As an avid Cardinals fan, smelling the beginning of the end for the Cubs here was sweet.

Game 3 featured the same shoddy starting pitching for the Cubs as the first two games. On paper, their rotation was solid, but if you actually were to look closer you would see converted (terrible) reliever, inconsistent hothead, injury-prone and losing velocity trade acquisition, and overrated Ted Lilly. The Cubs pitching just did not give them an opportunity to win.

The Dodgers won this series due to outscoring the Cubs 20-6. The offense never quit and the pitching could have won it with even less run support. Going forward, the Dodgers are a very dangerous team.

My prediction: Dodgers in 5, Actual: Dodgers in 3
2-2

Why the Phillies beat the Brewes

Well, the divisional series is over. I'm surprised neither Dave nor I posted our predictions, but just for the sake of information, I had predicted the Dodgers in 5, Phillies in 3(or 4 if Sabathia got rocked)*exact quote*, Tampa in 3, and Anaheim in 4. I'm going to try and break down each series and explain exactly why each team won. After that, I'll go ahead and put in my predictions for the championship series.

We will start off with the Phillies and Brewers. As soon as it was announced that Sheets was out, this series became a no-brainer. The Brewers starting pitching, outside of Sabathia, is abysmal. Before the acquisition of Sabathia, the Brewers ranked 7th in the NL in ERA and eighth in opponent's on-base percentage. The addition of Sabathia(and the fact that he pitched so many times in the second half) shot them up to first and fourth in those categories respectively. This obviously shows that outside of Sabathia, the Brewers are an incredibly hittable team. It certainly didn't help that in six regular season games, the Brewers lost five and gave up an average of more than five runs per game.

Using Gallardo as the starter for game 1 was not only an unnecessary risk, but one with an incredibly tipped hand. He had just returned from knee surgery and even the TBS announcers knew right away he would be on a strict 85 pitch count. Due to this, the Phillies showed more patience and had Gallardo knocked out by the fourth inning. The Brewers pen did not allow any additional runs, but the three that Gallardo allowed were all the Phillies needed to win the game.

In game 2, the inevitable happened. You simply can't pitch someone as much as the Brewers had been pitching Sabathia and expect him to come through every game. Sabathia was gassed and the Phillies attacked. These first two games really were the beginning of the end for the Crew, not only becuase they were down two games to none, but because their pen had been forced to throw eight and a third innings in the first two games.

Dave Bush had excellent stats for his home starts, so using him in game 3 was a good call. I think Sveum pulled him a bit early, however. He had only thrown 70 pitches and the bullpen then had to tack another three and third innings.

Game 4 was all about Jeff Suppan being terrible. Five runs in three innings is not what you expect out of a highly paid starter, especially in the playoffs. As much text as I just devoted to talking about the overuse of the pen in the last three games, Sveum would have been better off letting each reliever pitch two or three. The Brewers pen was actually unscored upon in the series aside from Mota in this game. Even if Suppan had pitched like a major leaguer, I think the overuse would have caught up with the Crew in game 5.

So, in four games, the Phillies outscored the Brewers 15-9, which isn't a blowout by any means but it is important to not that the Phillies pitching is what won them this series. Outside of Hamels, the Phillies look pretty weak, so this series can be viewed as a boost to their starting four. Their offense is ridiculous on paper, but the 15 runs is actually a pretty small number and may not be able to cut it against a better pitching team.

My prediction: Phillies in 3(or 4), Actual results: Phillies in 4

Cardinals' potential acquisitions

The St. Louis Cardinals are definately going to be buyers at the much anticipated trade deadline. They have shown interest in players such as Matt Holliday, Jason Bay, George Sherrill, Brian Fuentes, and J.J. Putz. In this post, I am going to try and put together some possible trades for some of these players:

Brian Fuentes:

The Colorado Rockies are looking to deal Brian Fuentes, but their asking price is pretty steep. They want a young starting pitcher in return and a little bullpen relief. Based on their needs, my trade would look like this:

Cardinals get:

Brian Fuentes

Rockies get:

Clayton Mortenson
Mike Parisi
Mark Worrell
Cash Considerations

Matt Holliday:

There is no easy deal that could be made for this all-star player. Any deal with the Cardinals would have to include top prospect Colby Rasmus. If the Cardinals would be interested in trading away Rasmus the trade might look something like this:

Cardinals get:

Matt Holliday

Rockies get:

Colby Rasmus
Bryan Anderson
Chris Duncan
Kyle Mura

George Sherrill:

The Baltimore Orioles are looking to rebuild at the shortstop position. The Cardinals would probably have to throw in a couple of arms as well. I believe the trade would look something like this:

Cardinals get:

George Sherrill

Orioles get:

Donovan Solano
Peter Kozma
Blake Hawksworth
Jason Motte
(possibly Chris Perez minus a couple of the previous named prospects)

Obviously all of these are merely predictions and aren't necessarily going to go through. The George Sherrill trade was the hardest to predict.

We will see what the Cardinals do tomorrow at the deadline.

Mid-Season Awards

These are my mid-season awards. I will also be comparing them to the picks I made before the season started. To start, here are my offseason division and wildcard winners:

AL East: New York Yankees
AL Central: Detroit Tigers
AL West: Seattle Mariners
AL Wildcard: Minnesota Twins

NL East: Atlanta Braves
NL Central: St. Louis Cardinals
NL West: Arizona Diamondbacks
NL Wildcard: San Diego Padres

When I look at this list, I see that only a few teams really have a chance at making my predictions come true. Here are my current picks for the division and wildcard winners:

AL East: Boston Red Sox
AL Central: Chicago White Sox
AL West: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
AL Wildcard: Minnesota Twins

NL East: Philadelphia Phillies
NL Central: Chicago Cubs
NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers
NL Wildcard: St. Louis Cardinals

My offseason awards, much like my division winners, were terribly picked. Here are the players I picked along with the Players I think will win now.

AL MVP: Ichiro Suzuki (Josh Hamilton is easily the MVP)
AL Cy Young: Justin Verlander (Im gonna go with Earvin Santana)
AL Rookie of the Year: Jacoby Ellsbury (not a terrible pick but Evan Longoria is a better one)
AL Comeback Player of the Year: Fransisco Liriano (he still hasn't even come back, I'll give it to Mr. Board Game himself, Milton Bradley)
AL Manager of the Year: Rod Gardenhire (Joe Maddon clearly is the better choice)

NL MVP: Albert Pujols (dead on)
NL Cy Young: Johan Santana (More like Tim Lincecum)
NL Rookie of the Year: Chase Headley (I pick Geovanny Soto)
NL Comeback Player of the Year: Kerry Wood (Clearly the best choice)
NL Manager of the Year: Tony LaRussa (Charlie Manuel has to get more credit for winning a division with some very dangerous teams)

Lets see if my picks now are closer as the second half begins.

Josh Hamilton, a Chicago Cub?

I was watching sportscenter this morning and i saw a story on the remarkable comeback of Josh Hamilton. During a part of this story, I found out a little piece of information that is very interesting; Hamilton was once a Chicago Cub rule 5 draft selection. He was then traded to the Cinncinati Reds. How could one major league franchise like the Chicago Cubs make so many front office mistakes over the years. Instead of having a centerfielder like Juan Pierre, they could have Josh Hamilton (as quoted by Justin McClary). Juan Pierre may be a stolen base threat, but come on, he cannot even compare to the numbers that Josh Hamilton has been putting up. Pierre is no longer with the Cubs. They have a new trio of outfielders. Jim Edmonds, Alfonso Soriano, and Kosuke Fukudome. Edmonds is past his prime, Soriano is injury-prone and a streaky hitter, and Kosuke Fukudome is a very inconsistent and poor hitter. It is a shock that he is even starting in the all star game with his numbers. However, with the Cubs fan base being what it is, he was a sinch to get in. To conclude my post, I would like to remind my Cubs Fan readers about their history; it has been 100 years since they have last won the World Series and moves like this do not help your chances for a title any sooner.

Yeah, I totally predicted the Mariners to win the World Series

Well then, let's take a looksie at my post from the beginning of the year and see how close(or how far off mostly) I was from predicting this season based on where we are now.

These were my predictions from the beginning of the year:
AL West: Seattle Mariners
AL Central: Minnesota Twins
AL East: New York Yankees
Wild Card: Texas Rangers

NL West: San Diego Padres
NL Central: St. Louis Cardinals
NL East: Atlanta Braves
Wild Card: Los Angeles Dodgers

Wow! Really REALLY bad. I really thought I had the Rays winning the wild card, but I think I had them just barely finishing above 500. Let's retool this a bit!

AL West: Texas Rangers
AL Central: Minnesota Twins
AL East: Boston Red Sox
Wild Card: Tampa Bay Rays

NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers
NL Central: St. Louis Cardinals
NL East: Philadelphia Phillies
Wild Card: Chicago Cubs

I think this will give us a Bos-Tex Tam-Min Phi-Chi LA-StL playoffs. I will make a bold prediction and say the championship series will be Boston against Tampa and Chicago against St Louis. I really want to predict a St. Louis vs. Boston world series for rematch sake, but it will probably be Boston against Chicago with Chicago winning. That hurts! I REALLY hope I'm wrong.

Let's look at my award predictions:
AL MVP: Adrian Beltre(WHOA! Way off, let's change this to Josh Hamilton)
AL Cy Young: Jered Weaver(Couldn't be wronger, we'll make this..umm..Ervin Santana....did i just say that?)
AL Rookie of the Year: Daric Barton(damn! definitely Evan Longoria)
AL Manager of the Year: Ron Gardenhire(probably has to be Maddon at this point)
AL Comeback Player: Francisco Liriano(could still happen, but right now it will probably be Giambi)

NL MVP: Albert Pujols(I'm sticking with this)
NL Cy Young: Chris Young(Albert ruined this prediction, but I'll change it to Tim Lincecum)
NL Rookie of the Year: Johnny Cueto(could have been true, but it is now definitely Soto)
NL Manager of the Year: Bobby Cox(NOPE! Should be LaRussa)
NL Comeback Player: Kerry Wood(MONEY!)

Josh Hamilton makes hitting homeruns look WAY too easy

So this will be a fun little post. David and I decided to enlighten everyone with mid-season awards and a separate post revisiting out predictions and revising them after half the season is gone.

Best Catcher:
AL- Joe Mauer NL- Brian McCann

Joe Mauer's nod here isn't even close. No other AL catcher is even close to touching him in terms of statistics. McCann's is a little closer with the presence of both Geovany Soto and Russell Martin, but he is leading the Braves, especially with Chipper out so often.

Best 1B:
AL- Kevin Youkilis NL- Lance Berkman

This one is hard for me, because it is scary to imagine Pujols's numbers without the DL stint and if people pitched to him more often. He leads the league in intentional walks by nine. Berkman, however, has been a stud this year. If he keeps this production up, he could be a 20/20 player. Youkilis has shown his normal defensive wizardry but has also been a beast offensively, leading the AL among 1B with a .933 OPS.

Best 2B:
AL- Ian Kinsler NL- Chase Utley

Kinsler is a no-brainer. This needs no discussion. Chase Utley barely edges out Dan Uggla due to better overall stats. Uggla has shown a ridiculous power stroke, but Utley is a true five tool player.

Best 3B:
AL- Alex Rodriguez NL- David Wright

I wish someone was closer to A-Rod because it seemed like he was having a down year, but he is actually leading the AL 3B in almost every statistical category. Evan Longoria gets a mention as a surprise rookie stud. David Wright is the best all around 3B in the national league. Anyone that says Chipper Jones is a gay.

Best SS:
AL- Jhonny Peralta NL- Hanley Ramirez

Hanley is having his usual godly season, but it is shocking to see that Peralta is destroying all other AL shortstops in every category except for stolen bases.

Best OF:
AL- Josh Hamilton, Grady Sizemore, Jermaine Dye NL- Ryan Ludwick, Ryan Braun, Nate McLouth

A lot of youth is stepping up this season. These six guys(aside from Dye) are showing that we could be entering a very exciting era for baseball. Hamilton is obviously the best out of this entire set, but these six lead their fields by a good margin for me.

Best SP:
AL- Justin Duchscherer NL- Edinson Volquez

Duchscherer is quietly having an excellent year. With a higher strikeout total, he would be a certain Cy Young winner. Volquez has the strikeouts and more and is the clear first half Cy winner.

Best RP:
AL- Mariano Rivera NL- Brad Lidge

These two make it on the grounds that neither has had a blown save, which is ridiculous. KRod is obviously an honorable mention

Most disappointing hitter overall:

Andruw Jones has been TERRIBLE this year. After signing a humongous contract, he has given the Dodgers about three dollars worth of performance and has not hit a homerun since May 15. The Dodgers presumable paid him to hit his usual 30+, not.....2.

Most surprising hitter:

I would label Ryan Ludwick as the most surprising hitter. His ZIPS projection had him hitting .262/.330/.476 with 20 homeruns and 64 rbis FOR THE SEASON. His stats at the half? .289/.365/.597 with 21 homeruns and 65 rbis. WOW!

Most disappointing pitcher:

This HAS to go to Barry Zito. He's making 14 million dollars this year. Apparently 14 million dollars gets you a 5.62 ERA and almost two runners per inning. For that much money, you should get more than five and a third innings per game.

Most surprising pitcher:

Cliff Lee was sent down to AAA last year. This year he's starting the All Star Game and had a sub 2 ERA at the end of May.

Most disappointing team:

With a 138+ million dollar payroll, best for second in the mlb, do the Detroit Tigers have the second best record? No, they are barely hanging on to a 500 record and Dontrelle Willis, part of the package they shredded their farm system apart for, is pitching in A ball.

Most surprising team:

Tampa Bay Rays. I shouldn't have to write about this. I think a lot of people, including myself, knew they would be competitive SOON, but not this season.

Funniest moment

Manny Ramirez giving the fan a high five AND throwing out a runner for a double play was easily the best moment of the year.

Justin's All-Star PREDICTIONS

Well since Dave(friggin' tard, thanks Allysha!) apparently can see into the future and tell you exactly what the lineups are, my post is kind of unnecessary. Anyway, here is my prediction for the lineups for the all-star teams.

American League: National League:
C: Jason Varitek C: Geovany Soto
1B: Kevin Youkilis 1B: Lance Berkman
2B: Dustin Pedroia 2B: Chase Utley
3B: Alex Rodriguez 3B: Chipper Jones
SS: Derek Jeter SS: Hanley Ramirez
LF: Manny Ramirez LF: Ryan Braun
CF: Josh Hamilton CF: Ken Griffey, Jr.
RF: Ichiro Suzuki RF: Kosuke Fukodome
DH: Justin Morneau DH: Ryan Howard

BN: Joe Mauer BN: Brian McCann
BN: Ian Kinsler BN: Russell Martin
BN: Michael Young BN: Derrek Lee
BN: Brian Roberts BN: Adrian Gonzalez
BN: Miguel Cabrera BN: Dan Uggla
BN: Vladimir Guerrero BN: David Wright
BN: Magglio Ordonez BN: Miguel Tejada
BN: Carlos Quentin BN: Ryan Ludwick
BN: Grady Sizemore BN: Pat Burrell
BN: Carl Crawford BN: Matt Holliday
BN: Alex Rios BN: Nate McLouth

P: John Lackey P: Brandon Webb
P: Cliff Lee P: Edinson Volquez
P: Roy Halladay P: Cole Hamels
P: Ervin Santana P: Tim Lincecum
P: Josh Beckett P: Ben Sheets
P: John Danks P: Johan Santana
P: Felix Hernandez P: Jake Peavy
P: Joakim Soria P: Jon Rauch
P: Huston Street P: Brad Lidge
P: Francisco Rodriguez P: Kerry Wood
P: Jonathan Papelbon P: Matt Capps
P: Mariano Rivera P: Jose Valverde

I won't try to guess the order of who the starting pitchers are because that will all depend on who is most rested and nonsense. Oh, but here are my predictions for the home run derby participants just because I rule:

American League National League
1)Alex Rodriguez 1)Chase Utley
2)Manny Ramirez 2)Dan Uggla
3)Josh Hamilton 3)Lance Berkman
4)Vladimir Guerrero 4)Ryan Howard

All Star Lineups

The following are the all star lineups for both the national league and the american league all star teams. It includes bench players and batting orders and the starting pitcher for each team:

NL

1. Jimmy Rollins, SS (Phi)
2. Chase Utley, 2B (Phi)
3. Lance Berkman, 1B (Hou)
4. Ryan Howard, DH (Phi)
5. Ken Griffey Jr., RF (Cin)
6. Chipper Jones, 3B (Atl)
7. Carlos Beltran, CF (NyM)
8. Ryan Braun, LF (Mil)
9. Geovanny Soto, C (ChC)

SP Brandon Webb

P Tim Lincecum
P Carlos Zambrano
P Edison Volquez
P Cole Hamels
P Jake Peavy
P Johan Santana
P John Rauch
P Kerry Wood
P Brad Lidge

BN

Brian McCann
Jeff Francouer
Hanley Ramirez
Dan Uggla
David Wright
Jose Reyes
Carlos Lee
Prince Fielder
Ryan Ludwick
Adrian Gonzalez
Jason Bay
Matt Holliday
Russell Martin

AL

1. Ichiro Suzuki, RF (Sea)
2. Derek Jeter, SS (NyY)
3. Josh Hamilton, CF (Tex)
4. Alex Rodriguez, 3B (NyY)
5. Vladimir Guerrero, LF (LaA)
6. Jason Giambi, DH (NyY)
7. Justin Morneau, 1B (Min)
8. Joe Mauer, C (Min)
9. Ian Kinsler, 2B (Tex)

SP John Lackey

P Fransisco Rodriguez
P Roy Halladay
P Scott Kazmir
P James Shields
P John Danks
P Joakim Soria
P Zach Greinke
P C.C. Sabathia
P Mariano Rivera
P Jonathon Papelbon

BN
Nick Markakis
B.J. Upton
Manny Ramirez
Carlos Quentin
Miguel Cabrera
Grady Sizemore
Mark Ellis
Milton Bradley
Brian Roberts
Carlos Guillen
Robinson Cano
Victor Martinez

All of these players' spots are all pending injuries or recoveries before the all star game.

Where will the Big Hurt land?

So after the release of Frank Thomas by the foolish Blue Jays, one question has been on everyone's minds: "How is Detroit playing so poorly?" No actually, there has been major speculation as to where Frank will play next.

It is a no-brainer that some team will take Thomas. He is one of the best hitters of the last two decades. Last year, he hit only eight home-runs in the first two months with an OPS around 700, but hit eighteen in the months to follow with an OPS around 900. He is a slow starter and will probably mash after he hits 100 at bats this year. The question is who needs him?

Obviously Frank is staying in the AL as a DH, as he will probably not be a pinch hitter extraordinaire and hasnt played the field since manning first base for the White Sox in 2004. That narrows the field down quite a bit. You can also take out any team that has a preestablished designated hitter, so most of your elite teams are out. In my mind, there are four possible destinations for the Big Hurt, and here is how I feel they rank:

4) Kansas City Royals

The Royals haven't looked this competitive in years; you would think a hitter such as Frank Thomas would complete the puzzle and make this team a sure-fire wild card candidate. However, with Billy Butler DHing and Ross Gload and Alex Gordon manning the hot corners, I don't think this team will sacrifice the playing times of their young starters. Probably not an option for Frank.

3) Baltimore Orioles

Honestly, if we were in a video game, this would be a solid option as Kevin Millar's hot streak is bound to end and Frank could step in and mash for the rest of the year. It seems like a match made in heaven, however with Baltimore in full-on rebuild mode, there would be no reason for them to pay for Frank to DH on a losing team. I'm not sure Frank would want take a job knowing he is set up for failure.

2) Texas Rangers

With the Rangers in last place in the West, it is time for some drastic moves. It is a division that can be one with a couple of well-played roster moves and the signing of Frank Thomas could be one of those moves. Currently, Milton Bradley and Frank Catalanotto have been splitting time there when either one is not playing the outfield. Neither are hitting well at all, so taking a risk on Frank Thomas would make just as much sense.

1) Seattle Mariners

Jose Vidro....really? After selling the farm to acquire Erik Bedard, Seattle needs to do something to gain something resembling depth, especially after giving away Adam Jones. (Vidro .208/.278/.319 Jones .242/.294/.355 good deal!) I think this is easily the best option, but I would not be surprised to see him land in Texas either. Guaranteed one of these two options will be his destination.


EDIT Or Oakland, I suppose.

The Rays are giving out more deals than Howie Mandel

So in case you guys haven't heard, the Rays are everyone's sexy sleeper pick to have a huge year. Think the Arizona Diamondbacks with better offense. Well, if you don't want to believe in hype alone, look at their two latest deals.

First off, they claimed Dan Johnson off of waivers from Oakland. Dan is a potentially great hitter who is notoriously fragile. If you take his career averages for the three full years he has played and prorate them over 162 games, then he is a 20 home-run, 80 RBI threat with a .763 OPS. Those are great stats as long as you aren't expecting him to be your stud number 3 or 4 hitter. If he can stay healthy, the Rays just scored a solid DH while Cliff Floyd is injured.

Secondly, they signed Evan Longoria to a monstrous six year deal with three more club option years. The deal is actually very very cheap, but unprecedented as no other player has ever been signed to such a long deal after playing only six games in the majors. ZiPS projections have him as a possible 20 homer guy with a .350 OBP, which would make one of the best 100 players at getting on base...serious value considering the most they would pay him annually will be six million in 2013.

I've picked them to hover around the .500 mark this year(so far their Pythag record is 87-75) but sometime within the next five seasons, we could potentially see the first Devil Ray playoff run.

RIIIIIIIIIIIICH HARDEN!!!!!!!!!

Holy cow! Rich Harden is making a case for the position of PITCHING GOD! After two total annihilations against the Red Sox, everyone NEEDS to pick him up in fantasy formats. If you already have him though, now is a great time to shop him around looking for any kind of value you can get. It is only a matter of time before he slips in the shower or something and breaks his arm. His history of injury is well-documented. In other news, how about that Soto homerun today? Wish I could have seen that coming...OH WAIT! I totally called a good season out of him; that was the first of about twenty. Give it a week or so and I will have a long post gloating about all the things I've been right about in my discussions with David!

My Predictions

Ok. Now I know it has been a very long time since I posted anything, but baseball season is upon us and it is time for me to make my preseason predictions.

First, the division winners and wild card teams.

AL East: New York Yankees
AL Central: Detroit Tigers
AL West: Seattle Mariners
AL Wildcard: Minnesota Twins

NL East: Atlanta Braves
NL Central: St. Louis Cardinals
NL West: Arizona Diamondbacks
NL Wildcard: San Diego Padres

REGULAR SEASON AWARDS

AL MVP: Ichiro Suzuki
AL Cy Young: Justin Verlander
AL Rookie of the Year: Jacoby Ellsbury
AL Comeback Player of the Year: Fransisco Liriano
AL Manager of the Year: Ron Gardenhire

NL MVP: Albert Pujols
NL Cy Young: Johan Santana
NL Rookie of the Year: Chase Headley
NL Comeback Player of the Year: Kerry Wood
NL Manager of the Year: Tony LaRussa

Now for the fun part. Playoff Predicitons.
First, the American League.

ALDS
Yankees over Twins
Mariners over Tigers

ALCS
Yankees over Mariners

Now for the National League.

NLDS
Braves over Padres
Diamondbacks over Cardinals

NLCS
Diamondbacks over Braves

Now the World Series looks like it should be a thrilling one as it is a rematch of the 2001 World Series. It is also Alex Rodriguez's first World Series appearance.

Diamondbacks over Yankees

Out of all of the talent that the Bronx Bombers have, I see a struggle in their pitching staff and an electric Diamondbacks' lineup full of youngsters who will lead their team to their second World Championship in franchise history.

Prediction Time!

Wow, it's been a looooooong time. Good thing we don't have many readers. Well, the season has officially already started, but I don't really count the games in Japan, so technically, tomorrow is the season opener. Given that news, how about some preseason predictions? I'm sure Dave will post his also and then we can make updated predictions at the ASB. Here goes:

 

AL West: Seattle Mariners
AL Central: Minnesota Twins
AL East: New York Yankees
Wild Card: Texas Rangers

NL West: San Diego Padres
NL Central: St. Louis Cardinals
NL East: Atlanta Braves
Wild Card: Los Angeles Dodgers

AL MVP: Adrian Beltre
AL Cy Young: Jered Weaver
AL Rookie of the Year: Daric Barton
AL Manager of the Year: Ron Gardenhire
AL Comeback Player: Francisco Liriano

NL MVP: Albert Pujols
NL Cy Young: Chris Young
NL Rookie of the Year: Johnny Cueto
NL Manager of the Year: Bobby Cox
NL Comeback Player: Kerry Wood

Seattle over Minnesota
New York over Texas
San Diego over Atlanta
St. Louis over Los Angeles

Seattle over New York
San Diego over St. Louis

Seattle over San Diego

Two Up, Two Down: First Base

Sorry for the humongous delay, although David didn't post jack either, so I don't feel that bad. Honestly, I've been assembling data to formulate my cheatsheet for the impending draft. I'm drafting my first team tomorrow, but I probably won't draft until early to mid march for my other leagues. Anyhow, here are my two up two down results for first base.

Two Up:

Adrian Gonzalez is normally a pretty good fantasy producer. He has a very good track record and is suitable as a starting first basemen in most leagues. For some reason, though, he is going about five rounds after Justin Morneau even though they are projected to have similar stats. AGon in the 10th round is a fairly good starting first basemen pick but amazing value as your utility player.

Adam LaRoche is going undrafted in most leagues due to his down year last year. That, of course was a down year in which he still hit 21 home runs and 88 RBIs. as long as Bay doesn't get traded, don't count LaRoche out as he will see pitches and mash his way to 30 homeruns this year.

Two Down:

In time, I think Prince Fielder will develop into an excellent and consistent player. However, his home run totals doubled his 2006 numbers, so he may hit closer to 30 or 40 at a max. Obviously that doesn't make him a bad option, but it does take him out of the second or third round, as better value can be found at those picks.

Expect another down year out of Derrek Lee. He is an inconsistent an injury prone hitter. Everyone is waiting for another 2005, but I think his ceiling right now is 30 homeruns. I don't see him having a full season this year.

New Name; New URL

We have a new name for our blog. Its called The Designated Hitter. The name might eventually change again based on better names but we don't know yet. in the mean time, to check out our blog go to www.thedesignatedhitter.blogspot.com. Thank you and have a wonderful evening.

Ups and Downs

So over at Fantasy Baseball Cafe, they have a series of posts entitled "Two Up Two Down" where, for every postion, they take two players who are either unheralded or underrated and bring them to your attention and then two players who are either overrated or are being drafted too early and let you know why they should not be going as high. This is one of my favorite posts of theirs, so I decided to play this little game at work with Dave. Here are my picks for each position; I'm not sure if he'll pick his.


Catcher

Two Up:

J.R. Towles and Geovany Soto

After Towles' last month last year, a lot of hype has been put around him as a solid sleeper candidate. Let's not forget his eight RBI game against Looper and the Cardinals. Obviously you can't base his success this season off that one game, but with a much stronger Astros lineup in front of him, you can defnitely have confidence in Towles as a late round option for your starting catcher.

Soto is an unheralded young catcher with the Cubs who could end up having a huge year. He is facing off against mostly NL Central pitchers(who aren't that great) and has the Cubs pretty solid lineup in front of him. Baseball Think Factory has him projected at hitting 20 homeruns with 73 RBIs, which is pretty good from your catcher position. He's not a Victor, Russell, or Joe, but if you miss out on the big name catchers, you can pick up Soto late instead of reaching for Bengie Molina.

Two Down

Jorge Posada and Russell Martin

Posada, by most sites, is projected to have almost exactly the same stats as Towles. The only differences between the two are 13 years and about twenty rounds. Posada is routinely going in the eighth round or earlier whereas Towles in a lot of cases is undrafted. No justice in the world.

Martin is of course a controversial pick because of his huge year last year. I enjoyed Martin's success as much as the next guy. He was my starting catcher in both leagues last year. My hunch this year though is that his knees catch up to him. He sat out of a couple of games last year because of knee troubles and that could affect his speed on the basepaths. Obviously this is what sets him apart from other catchers as without the 20 stolen bases, he is exactly the same value as Soto or Towles. This is one where you really have to go with your instinct, but I am not completely sold on Martin to put up another 20 bags this year.

Pitching As A Priority

As a contrast to my last post, these are the results of using pitching as a priority in your draft. I was going to use my first nine picks as pitchers, but I didn't want to reach too far for guys, making it unrealistic, so I only drafted pitchers when they were within the next 20 probable picks. Four of my first five picks were pitchers. Here is my team:

C J.R. Towles --- C (HOU)
1B Adrian Gonzalez --- 1B (SD)
2B Dan Uggla --- 2B (FL)
3B Adrian Beltre --- 3B (SEA)
SS Jhonny Peralta --- SS (CLE)
OF Eric Byrnes --- OF (ARZ)
OF Chris Young --- OF (ARZ)
OF Raul Ibanez --- OF (SEA)
UTIL David Ortiz --- DH (BOS)

P Johan Santana --- SP (MIN)
P Brandon Webb --- SP (ARZ)
P C.C. Sabathia --- SP (CLE)
P Francisco Rodriguez --- RP (LAA)
P Jonathan Papelbon --- RP (BOS)

Bench Adam Wainwright --- SP (STL)
Bench Rich Hill --- SP (CHC)
Bench Kevin Youkilis --- 1B (BOS)
Bench Josh Willingham --- OF (FL)

To be honest, I'm not as upset with my team as I thought I would be. There is a lot of talent late in the draft this year to make this strrategy actually kind of plausible. This would obviously not be a good idea in roto, but in a head to head, the offense I've assembled could easily win. This is definitely a very sketchy strategy to go with, however, as if you don't know what you are doing, you could end up with Juan Pierre and Doug Mientkiewicz on your starting roster.

Punting Pitching

So over at Couch Managers, you can do mock drafts to get you some experience on your fantasy draft. I recommend this site to anyone who wants to try out certain strategies before they actually draft their team. I decided to test two strategies out: one in which I draft all of my offensive players before drafting my first pitcher and one vice versa. Here are the results of drafting my offensive players first:

C Victor Martinez
1B Justin Morneau
2B Robinson Cano
3B Miguel Cabrera
SS Carlos Guillen
OF Grady Sizemore
OF Chris Young
OF Andruw Jones
UTIL Jim Thome
P John Smoltz
P Brad Penny
P Adam Wainwright
P Rich Hill
P Huston Street
Bench Joe Blanton
Bench Raul Ibanez
Bench Josh Willingham
Bench Jim Hoey

I'm a little light on saves, but that is a dynamite staff regardless. I'm not saying I would use this strategy in every draft, but food for thought.

Justin's Divisional Predictions

Well, I got three out of the four games right. New York vs. Tampa, on paper, looked like a battle of who was worse. I didn't get a chance to watch the game but it appeared as though New York won with a surprisingly balanced attack, utilizing 30 running plays to 27 passes. Good strategy. Time for predictions:

NFC

Seattle @ Green Bay

This is a game that is surprisingly very very close to call. Looking at records alone, Green Bay is the far superior, but as long as both teams play to their best, then they are very very even teams. The outcome of this game, in my mind, depends on two factors: the weather and Shaun Alexander. Weather.com has the Saturday high at a chilly 26 degrees. If it dips below that, it may actually favor Seattle as history and the game against Chicago in Week 16 shows that Brett Favre is surprisingly poor in cold weather. The Seattle defense also plays an important role in this game. If they start pressuring Favre early in the game, he will start getting wild with his passes as Week 13 against Dallas showed. Shaun Alexander's role in this game is huge. If he brings his A game and takes the pressure off of Hasselbeck and the passing game, then the game may be Seattle's to win. It's a risky call, but I'm choosing Seattle in what should be a very close game.

New York @ Dallas

Under normal conditions this game would be easy to call. Dallas at full strength is a much better team and matches up well with New York. If Terrell Owens wins, this game is a victory. If Terry Glenn plays also, then it's a blowout. This is a game that is almost impossible to predict due to the mystery of who exactly is going to play for Dallas. I will go out on a limb and say that even if he is at less than 100 percent, TO will not miss this game. Dallas will win, but not by as much as they are fully capable of.

AFC

Jacksonville @ New England

Jacksonville beat a better defense in Pittsburgh by using a balanced attack and a very good running arsenal. It was a close victory, but a victory in which Jacksonville scored 24 points on the league's best defense. I think as long as the Jacksonville defense can keep Tom Brady's receiving corps under close cover then they can win this game. New England's rushing defense is good, but they are going against the second best rushing team in the league. Between Fred Taylor, Maurice Jones-Drew, and David Garrard, Jacksonville can throw a lot in the Patriots direction. Obviously this is a risky prediction to make, but I think Jacksonville wins this game.

San Diego @ Indianapolis

I'm not going to play the garbage "this team has this team's number" game because with free agency and trades and what not, teams aren't the same year to year. What I will look at is a San Diego team that struggled against Tennessee. San Diego's only chance of winning this game is having LT run the ball at Indy's league average rushing defense. All in all I just don't see San Diego scoring enough to hang with Indy from Week 17, much less an Indy that has Marvin Harrison back. I say Indianapolis wins this one. The big question is whether it is a shootout or a blowout.

If my predictions are correct, then we have a rematch from last year's Wild Card of Dallas against Seattle and a very good matchup of Jacksonville against Indianapolis. My predictions may of course change as injury reports come out.

My Predictions (David)

Being as how I have no charisma (or very little) a lot of you might not care about my predictions. I will be the bigger man and admit that I was wrong about Washington over Seattle.

Jacksonville defeated Pittsburgh and Seattle defeated Washington. I didn't watch either of those games so I cannot reflect on either of those. I do agree with Justin's picks (other than New York over Tampa Bay) for the second round matchups but I am going to go a little further.

Dallas over Tampa Bay

Same game as Thanksgiving Day two years ago. Jeff Garcia is the new quarter back but the outcome will be the same.

Green Bay over Seattle

It is the same matchup as a few years ago. Lets have no predictions by any visiting quarterbacks in overtime. Brett Favre in the playoffs at Lambeau field. Normally this would be an easy decision but expect this game to be an overtime thriller. Im predicting a 34-31 Green Bay victory.

Jacksonville over New England

I know this is a shocker to everyone but pressure does build up. New England will not win out because (1) Jacksonville plays in the toughest division in the NFL. (2) Jacksonville just has a better chance at winning this game.

San Diego over Indianapolis

San Diego has had Indianapolis's number for years now. They are just a better team. This is the year that we finally don't see Indianapolis or New England in the AFC Championship game.

With all of this (little information) said, the matchups in Championship weekend will look like this:

Jacksonville vs. San Diego
Green Bay vs. Dallas

I hope to give more information on my next prediction, which will be the Super Bowl.

New guy in town; wild-card predictions

Hello, my name is Justin and I will be posting on Dave's blog because I bring more charisma to the table, which in turn should increase our hits. Dave and I work together and we are going to try to keep our work sports arguments from boiling over into the blog where you, the innocent reader, would have to play spectator. We may work on some new changes such as the layout, color, and title(a name using Dave's initials doesn't work for me.). Tune in and if anyone is reading this, send us some comments with things you would like to see.

Anyhow, I'm ashamed Dave hasn't done this yet, but here are my NFL Wild Card predictions. I'll probably post again tonight or tomorrow with my predictions for next week but here goes:

NFC:

Seattle over Washington

It's a little late to call this one, but I told Dave the Seahawks would prevail. Good job picking Washington. Seattle is a very poor playoff team, but their defense was able to keep Washington's inconsistent and one-dimensional offense in check. With Todd Collins taking the snaps, the team was forced to lean on Clinton Portis and he is far too inconsistent of a back to be relied on like that. Certain weeks he'll break for over 100 yards and then the next week he'll be held to 30. He is an elite back, but he is only one man.

Tampa Bay over New York

It's a shame that New York is only as good as they are. With a better QB, New York could have a perennial Super Bowl favorite, but Eli is not very good at utilizing the tools he is given. They have a very balanced running game with Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw and a strong receiving corps of Burress, Shockey, and Toomer. But you have a slightly above average QB taking on the best passing defense in the NFC. New York's only hope is to rely strongly on their running game, but I think Tampa's 3rd ranked scoring defense will keep the Giants out of the end zone.

AFC:

Jacksonville over Pittsburgh

Surprisingly, Jacksonville is my pick as the AFC rep in the Super Bowl so I was glad that they won this game. They have a great running game and realized that they are a running team. This helped them control the tempo of the game and keep the ball out of Roethlisberger's hands. If they can keep this strategy up, I think they could be the ultimate Cinderella story in this year's playoffs.

San Diego over Cle.....Tennessee

This should be the Browns game to win. Tennessee is a very questionable playoff team. They are not strong at either the running game, passing, or defense. They are basically average enough all around to have been fairly successful this year. In this game though, San Diego takes the cake because of two words: Ladainian Tomlinson. I'm calling for a huge game out of him. Not a tough prediction there, though

Soooooo....if my predictions are correct, next week we will see:
Dallas vs. Tampa Bay
Green Bay vs. Seattle(Let's hope for another OT mishap in that one!)
New England vs. Jacksonville
Indianapolis vs. San Diego

Cardinals' Starting Rotation

The St. Louis Cardinals just signed veteran right-hander Matt Clement to a one year deal. As of right now their starting rotation looks like this:

1. Adam Wainright
2. Braden Looper
3. Matt Clement
4. Joel Piñeiro
5. Anthony Reyes

This looks like a pretty average rotation to me. Wainright is an ace in the making so he could end the season somewhere around 16 wins. However, Looper is only a second year starter and will probably only win 11. Clement is coming off a major injury and will possibly win 13 games. Piñeiro is not a bad starter but will probably only win 12 at the most. And finally there is Anthony Reyes. Aside from his one amazing start in Game 1 of the 2006 World Series, he has virtually shown no promise for the Cardinals whatsoever, so I will ballpark around 6 wins for him. This leaves the Cardinals' starters with a combined win total of 58. This number of wins is also depending on how the offense produces throughout the year (which doesn't look good at the moment).

Baseball for Dummies

So I was in Springfield, Illinois in the White Oaks mall on monday, December 31 when I came across a very interesting book. I didn't read the book or even open a single page of it while I was there. I just saw the cover. For those of you who watch Sunday night baseball on ESPN during the regular season, you will catch Joe Morgan commentating (or attempting to) on every game on sunday nights. I am not a fan of Joe Morgan because I believe that he says some things that are really stupid about baseball. He is not a very bright person. I suppose you all are wondering where I am going with this since I mentioned a book. Because I know about Joe Morgan, seeing this book was priceless for me.

The book says it all. Thank you Joe for doing this. You made my year end in smiles and laughter.